'India may never fully participate in the AI hype cycle, but we can position ourselves to benefit from its inevitable disenchantment and the cycle of disillusionment,' alerts Akash Prakash.
'I do believe there will be a resolution in the next couple of months on the penal tariff and hopefully on the reciprocal tariff also.'
The Indian economy continues to sustain the momentum achieved in the first half of 2023-24 and expectations of a fresh round of capex by the corporate sector is likely to fuel the next leg of growth, the Reserve Bank Bulletin said on Tuesday. "The likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger than expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced," said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in the bulletin.
Shocks from Brexit could also hurt one of China's biggest export markets.
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
The country's economic growth in the second quarter this fiscal is expected to be slightly lower than in preceding two quarters due to a slowdown in industrial growth, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said on Monday. "We expect the Indian economy to have grown by 8.8 per cent in the September 2007 quarter. Although healthy, this growth is considerably lower than the 9.3 per cent growth in real gross domestic product clocked in the June 2007 quarter," CMIE said.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday marginally revised upwards the economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 6.4 per cent. Unveiling the first bi-monthly monetary policy of 2023-24 fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023-24 is expected at 7.8 per cent.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
Investors are sceptical that the economy could have picked up so much steam.
'One Chinese interlocutor said India should realise that "China can do without India, but India could not do without China", pointing to its inability to do without Chinese intermediates and components,' former foreign secretary Shyam Saran discovers on a visit to China.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday said it expects the economy to record positive growth in the second half of the current financial year.
Moody's said the government will face challenges in achieving its deficit target for the fiscal year ending March 2021, amid persistent structural and cyclical headwinds to growth.
The government's Chief Economic Adviser, Kaushik Basu, on Wednesday said economic growth is expected to rise to 8.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, while inflation is likely to be significantly lower from May-end
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
The stock and bond markets told Trump firmly that any idea of isolating China would lead to harming the US economy and this forced Trump to backtrack, points out Aakar Patel.
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday said the outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth. It said Indian banks' profitability will increase further on lower provisioning expenses and robust growth in higher-yielding retail segments. "Our outlook for global banks for 2024 is negative as central banks' tighter monetary policies have resulted in lower GDP growth.
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
The critical information in the first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data relates to the proximity of real and nominal GDP growth rates at 7.8 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. The implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation is only 0.2 per cent. This phenomenon has repeated after fifteen quarters.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 9.5 per cent in fiscal 2021-22, an SBI research report-Ecowrap said. The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent. In October's monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22, consisting of 7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22.
Hurt by a contraction in mining and manufacturing.
The chief statistician feels there should be a rebound after companies integrate and adopt the GST system
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
India is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy in 2025, but slow income growth, lack of structural change, and rising inequality highlight the gap between progress and real transformation.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
According to Central statistics office press note, GDP at current prices in Q1 of 2015-16 is estimated at 32.43 lakh crore, as against 29.80 lakh crore in Q1 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 8.8 percent.
After bumbling for years since 2014, the Modi government seems to believe that massive government expenditure will lead us to prosperity supported by 'seat-of-the-pants' decision-making, observes Debashis Basu.
A sluggish manufacturing sector pulled down the economic growth to 8.9 per cent during the July-September quarter from 10.2 per cent.
India is the world's fastest-expanding major economy after China and recorded a growth of 9.3 per cent in the quarter ended June 30. The country's central bank has projected a GDP growth of 8.5 per cent.
The panel, headed by former RBI governor C Rangarajan, in its economic outlook for 2007-08 also projected inflation to remain within 4 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast to 5.2 per cent for 2020, saying the global economy is entering a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. The agency had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.7 per cent during the 2020 calendar.
Pakistan on Tuesday increased its defence budget by 20 per cent, allocating PRs. 2,550 billion ($9 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-26, amid tensions with India.
Citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression, SBI Research has pencilled in the country's GDP growth for the second quarter at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates. The government will release the official numbers on November 30. In a report on Monday, SBI Research headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh said corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding banking and financial sector, degrew by 14 per cent in Q2FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in Q2FY22, though the top line continued to grow at a healthier pace.
The ideal time to invest in sector funds, is during a downturn so that investors can capitalise on a turnaround in 1.5 to 2 years.
